Domestic Pricing Continues to Climb Above $1,000
Hot rolled coil pricing has moved decisively higher to begin 2026. On January 1, 2025, CRU hot rolled was $694 per ton. Prices climbed sharply to $967 by early April, softened to $804 mid-year, then rebounded to $908 by year-end.
Today, CRU hot rolled stands at $1,002 per ton, marking a meaningful psychological and structural shift in the market.
This recent strength is being driven primarily by:
- Continued trade restrictions limiting access to North American supply outside the United States
- Ongoing Section 232 tariffs at 50 percent
- Tight domestic mill availability
- Planned mill outages heading into spring and summer
Unlike prior price increases that were demand-driven, this move is predominantly supply-constrained. We expect prices to continue inching upward through the summer, though increases are likely to be gradual rather than aggressive.
Lead Times and Availability Tighten Further
Mill lead times are currently extending into April and May, with multiple mills reporting April production already booked. Some mills are still accepting April orders for contract customers only, with little to no spot availability for hot rolled or cold rolled products.
Organic growth across many sectors remains muted, but supply limitations are creating upward pricing pressure regardless of demand softness.
Imports have attempted to undercut domestic pricing in order to move material into the U.S., in some cases absorbing tariff costs to remain competitive. However, volumes remain historically low.
Carbon steel imports at the end of 2025 fell to their lowest level since November 2020. Total flat rolled imports for full year 2025 were down 42 percent year over year. While higher domestic pricing may eventually incentivize additional import activity, the U.S. steel industry is expected to respond aggressively to prevent meaningful import share gains.
Tariff Landscape and Supreme Court Ruling
A recent Supreme Court ruling determined that certain tariffs imposed under IEEPA exceeded executive authority. The ruling affects a limited group of products primarily involving Canada, Mexico, and China.
Key points:
- Section 232 tariffs at 50 percent remain fully in place for steel and are unchanged.
- IEEPA tariffs that were applied to certain products may be subject to refund, pending lower court determinations.
- The estimated total IEEPA refund exposure across all industries is approximately $134 billion.
- In the steel sector, IEEPA tariffs applied to steel subject to exclusions and were paid by importers of record. Any potential refunds would go to those importers.
For our customers, there is no impact to supply chain stability or pricing structure as a result of this ruling.
Market Conditions by Sector
Market Conditions
Housing remains soft, with the February Housing Market Index at 36 versus 42 one year ago, marking two consecutive years below the 50 threshold and signaling continued pessimism. Automotive production continues below pre-2019 levels. Inventory turnover has slowed year over year, and manufacturers are maintaining lean production schedules. Heavy truck sales declined 13 percent in 2025 and continue to show year over year weakness in early 2026, often viewed as a leading indicator of broader industrial slowdown. Solar remains a strong sector, and infrastructure tied to data centers and power-related construction continues to support steady steel demand.
Closing Perspective
The defining characteristic of today’s steel market is constrained supply rather than accelerating demand. Prices above $1,000 per ton reflect limited domestic availability, restricted North American trade flows, and disciplined mill order books. While several end markets show caution, supply-side dynamics are supporting pricing strength heading into summer. Disciplined procurement strategy and proactive planning remain critical in this environment.
We will continue to monitor mill availability, tariff developments, and sector-specific demand indicators and keep you informed as conditions evolve.