Market Update: Firm Conditions Continue, Planning Remains Critical

The steel market may feel like “more of the same,” but it is not a market to ignore. Conditions remain firm, lead times still require planning and delivered cost pressures continue to be an important part of the buying decision.

Manufacturing activity remains in expansion, though growth is modest. According to the Institute for Supply Management, the April Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7%, unchanged from March and marking the fourth consecutive month of manufacturing expansion. New orders and production were growing, while supplier deliveries slowed, raw materials inventories contracted, customer inventories remained too low, and prices continued to increase.

For steel buyers, the message is straightforward: demand is not running away, but it is strong enough to keep pressure on availability. The American Iron and Steel Institute reported U.S. raw steel production of 1,830,000 net tons for the week ending April 25, 2026, up 8.7% from the same week in 2025. Year-to-date production was also up 6.0%. Even with stronger production, the market does not feel loose.

In our current experience, hot rolled lead times are running around 8 to 10 weeks. Customers with known demand should be communicating forecasts and timing needs early. In this market, the risk is not only price. It is also whether the right material will be available when it is needed.

Pricing remains firm. Nucor’s current published hot rolled price is $1,070 per ton, up $5 from last week, with cold rolled at $1,270 per ton. The week-to-week movement is modest, but the trend has been steady. CRU-linked pricing is reinforcing the same direction, with CME showing U.S. Midwest HRC futures at $1,139 on May 4. While futures are not the same as a spot quote, they are useful because many contracts and market expectations are tied to the CRU benchmark.

For customers, the takeaway is that pricing is not showing meaningful relief yet. A slow, steady climb can be easy to underestimate, but it still raises replacement costs over time. Buyers with known demand should be looking at replacement cost, timing, and availability together, not just today’s spot number.

Imports are becoming more visible, but they are not a simple answer. AISI reported that March steel import permit applications totaled 1,773,000 net tons, up 6.6% from February permit tons. Finished steel import market share was estimated at 16% in March and 15% year to date. At the same time, total and finished steel imports for the first three months of 2026 were down 34.7% and 34.9%, respectively, from the same period in 2025.

Imports may make sense for some buyers, especially while domestic prices remain firm. But the decision should not be based on price alone. Lead time, logistics, tariff exposure, policy changes, quality requirements, and execution risk all need to be part of the conversation.

Demand remains uneven by end market. Data centers, infrastructure, energy-related work, and certain OEM programs continue to support steel demand. Truck-related demand has also improved, with ACT Research reporting final North American Class 8 net orders of 38,050 units in March, up 131% year over year. At the same time, ACT noted that the U.S. trailer industry remains challenged, with Q1 2026 trailer orders about 9% below Q1 2025 despite improvement in March.

Freight and fuel remain important to delivered cost. EIA’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast retail gasoline prices to average more than $3.70 per gallon this year and diesel prices to average $4.80 per gallon in 2026. Freight, fuel, carrier availability, and timing all affect the final cost and reliability of supply.

Our guidance remains the same: this is still a planning market. If you have visibility to your needs, consider securing material sooner rather than waiting for a perfect signal. If your forecast is uncertain, share ranges and timing as early as possible so we can help plan around mill availability, lead times, freight, and risk.

The market may feel steady, but steady does not mean easy. Customers who plan early and communicate clearly will be in the best position to navigate the months ahead.

Sources: Institute for Supply Management, American Iron and Steel Institute, Nucor customer pricing communication, CME Group, ACT Research, U.S. Energy Information Administration.