Steel isn’t loosening up. Here’s how to plan for it.
If you’ve been waiting for the steel market to catch its breath, our team has a simple message: don’t hold your breath.
Compared with just 30 days ago, the market has become more challenging. Mills have signaled that access to steel will be harder heading into next year, and 2027 contract negotiations are now underway. Here’s what we’re seeing and how to plan around it.
Supply is tight, and prices are still climbing
U.S. mills ran at 80.5% of capacity the week of September 26, while finished steel imports through August were down 17.8% from last year, held back by the 50% Section 232 tariff. Prices reflect that. Nucor’s hot-rolled spot price rose every week in September, reaching $1,220 per ton. Manufacturers across the economy are feeling it too. In ISM’s September survey, price increases became even more widespread, with steel and aluminum among the main reasons.
We expect prices to keep rising through year-end. Hot-rolled lead times are running 8 to 10 weeks, with cold-rolled and coated closer to 12, and October order books are largely shipping in January.
Imports can help, if you plan ahead
Imports are picking up again and reached an estimated 18% of the finished steel market in August. Even after the tariff, offshore offers are priced low enough to compete, and we expect more import tons in the first half of 2027. The catch is time: imports need to be planned 90 to 120 days out, and not every product makes sense once duty and freight are added. We can help you decide where imports fit.
2027 will reward early planning
We expect mills to commit fewer contract tons next year and sell more at higher spot prices. Our 2027 negotiations are underway, and we’ve spent this year positioning to secure what our customers need. Our long-term mill relationships remain a real advantage.
The main wildcard is trade policy. Mexico has signaled confidence in an interim deal that could lower U.S. steel tariffs, with talks resuming in October, but nothing has been announced.
Demand is strong, but uneven
Data centers lead the way, with a record 7,481 megawatts under construction across North America and more than 80% already leased (CBRE). Power and utility construction starts are up 70% this year (Dodge), and Deere expects construction equipment sales to grow 5% to 10%. Trailer orders and auto sales are holding up better than expected. Housing and agriculture remain soft. USDA projects farm income down 5.5% after inflation, though Deere believes 2026 marks the bottom of the ag equipment cycle.
Two dates to watch: Canada raised its tariff on U.S. steel to 50% on September 8, and federal highway funding is extended only through December 11.
What to do in the next 60 to 90 days
For buyers, the most valuable thing you can do right now is share your 2027 forecast with us. Commit where you have visibility, and consider imports for any needs you can plan 90 to 120 days ahead. Out engineers can help too: flexibility on grade, gauge or width often opens up supply options, so tell us where you have room. For owners, the message is to budget for higher steel costs in 2027. Treat early commitments as a supply strategy, not just a pricing decision.
This market rewards the customers who plan ahead, and we’re here to help you do exactly that. Reach out to your Steel Warehouse representative anytime.
Sources: AISI weekly production (Sept. 26, 2026) and SIMA import data (Sept. 10, 2026); Nucor spot price announcements (Sept. 2026); ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct. 1, 2026); CBRE North America Data Center Trends H1 2026; Dodge Construction Network (Sept. 2026); Deere & Company Q3 FY2026 (Aug. 20, 2026); FTR (Sept. 2026); Cox Automotive (Sept. 24, 2026); USDA ERS (Sept. 3, 2026); Department of Finance Canada (Aug. 25, 2026); Congressional Research Service (Sept. 14, 2026); Mexico Business News (Oct. 2026).
This update is for general information only. Outlook statements reflect Steel Warehouse’s views as of October 2026 and are not a price forecast or a guarantee of supply.